Closed out my first position posted here, put on UNH up ~280%, and UNH up ~105%, and a position I took this morning which was a put on abmd.
Selling here because I find myself frozen, unable to think of what to do next. This is an unhealthy mindset that I am familiar with from playing poker years ago, better to step back, collect thoughts and then proceed. Buying a put on abmd worked out, but I bought because I didn't want to watch a big move down right after I sold out of half my exposure, basically it was emotional and shortsighted, which probably will lead to other similarly based decisions.
To state/restate my investing theory in bullet form.
1. The yield curve inversion is an inflection point. Approaching the inversion is a different investing environment than the period during the reversion and widening of the curve, companies and industries that do well in one probably won't do as well in the other.
2. The curve takes a long time to narrow, long enough for the 1st effect to have knock off effects on the economy. If housing booms from the environment then eventually construction firms will boom and then logging, reits, and realtors etc will boom. The early stages of the boom are when the first sectors take off, the height of the boom is when all the sectors are growing and the early stage of the bust is when the leading sectors have lost their growth but it has not yet hit the secondary sectors.
Clearly I picked the health care industry (as in stock prices within) as benefiting from the previous circumstances and the movement of prices recently has been a point in favor of my hypothesis. Now I need to move forward on projecting the timing and depth of the pullbacks and also anticipating the first order knock off effects, not staring at prices willing them to go down further.
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